Expand your knowledge of state-of-the-art macroeconomic forecasting techniques and learn to prepare a comprehensive economic outlook like a pro.
Macroeconomic Forecasting Bootcamp
Formulating economic outlook is a complex process as the economy, consumer behaviour, government policies, global trade and financial conditions continuously evolve. Good forecasters can identify key trends and help navigate through the uncertainties of an ever-changing economy.
Course objectives: This program expands your knowledge of the state-of-the-art techniques in macroeconomic forecasting. Our aim is for you to return to your institutions equipped with new tools and ready to confidently apply them in your daily work.
You will learn how to:
select the key indicators of macroeconomic trends;
assess the current economic situation;
achieve optimal forecasting performance at 3-month and 3-year horizons with statistical and semi-structural general equilibrium models;
incorporate expert judgements;
assess risks and alternative scenarios;
explain the forecast in a coherent economic story to your stakeholders.
This training provides a rare opportunity to learn the best practice from New Zealand experts with rich international experience in building forecasting and analytical systems for public and private organizations. The bootcamp will use New Zealand as the baseline country case, but with prior notice, organizers can accommodate other country choices.
Course material that participants will take home:
PowerPoint presentations with examples and cookbooks;
Trial version of MATLAB and IRIS (toolbox for macroeconomic forecasting)
Introduction to the MATLAB/IRIS software for beginners
Codes of macroeconomic model calibrated to selected country
Codes for the production of near-term forecast (6 months ahead)
Codes for the production of medium-term forecast (2 years ahead)
Codes for simulating alternative economic scenarios and risk assessment
Course format: The course design and teaching methodology is based on an active learning philosophy. Instructors utilize a blended learning approach of interactive lectures and practically-oriented, hands-on workshops using Excel, Matlab and Iris.
Who should attend: This bootcamp is targeted at young professional forecasters from both private and public organizations who want to get quickly up to speed with all the necessary skills for preparing forecasts of GDP growth, consumer price inflation, exchange rates, interest rates and macroeconomic variables alike.
Prerequisites: Participants should be familiar with intermediate econometrics, macroeconomics, and basics of coding.
Equipment: Participants are required to bring a laptop with a USB port drive.
Pre-work: The course will utilize Matlab and Iris software. Participants are required to get to know the basics of the programming language before attending. A compact do-it-yourself tutorial will be sent out to participants in advance. Further, organizers will help with the installation of trial licenses for Matlab.
23-27 September, 2019
Sofitel Hotel, Wellington, New Zealand
Day 1 – Monday, 23 September
Overview of forecasting technology used by central banks today
Preparing data and forecasting database
Nowcasting and near-term forecasting
Day 2 – Tuesday, 24 September
Overview of structural models for medium-term forecasting
Assessing current macroeconomic conditions
Day 3 – Wednesday, 25 September
Formulating and quantifying baseline forecast scenario
Formulating and quantifying alternative forecast scenarios
Day 4 – Thursday, 26 September
Identifying, quantifying and assessing risks
Probabilistic forecasting of interest rates, exchange rates and state finances
Day 5 – Friday, 27 September
Closing ceremony and presentation of certificates
A rear opportunity to learn from New Zealand experts
Wishing to Apply?
Please register by emailing your details and indicating your preferences for a country case (besides New Zealand) to email@example.com or filling up the contact form on this web site.
The deadline for applying is 30 August 2019.
We reserve the right to reject applicants due to the capacity limitations even before this deadline.
The fee covers tuition, study materials, certificate, city highlight sightseeing tour, coffee breaks with snacks, lunch, farewell dinner.
Participants are responsible for their own travel arrangements. Organizers are happy to advise on accommodation, local transportation and obtaining a New Zealand travel visa. A full travel package can be provided at an additional fee and is quoted individually upon an expression of interest.